According to the Center for Reproductive Rights, a group that fights abortion restrictions in court and closely follows state laws, 24 states are likely to ban abortion if allowed. These states are: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
The Guttmacher Institute, a research group focusing on reproductive health care, says a slightly different group of states is likely to limit access to abortion significantly: Its list of 26 states excludes North Carolina and Pennsylvania, but includes Florida, Iowa, Montana and Wyoming.
Thirteen states have so-called trigger laws, which were passed to make abortion illegal as soon as the court allowed it. Some have old abortion laws on the books, which became invalid by the Roe decision, but which could be enforced again. Still other states, like Oklahoma, have abortion bans passed during this legislative session, despite the Roe precedent.
How would the number of American abortions change?
Some women seeking abortion could get them in other ways, including traveling to a state where abortion is legal, or ordering pills online outside the country. Texas provides an example. In September, a law banning abortion came into force after the fetal heart activity was discovered, about six weeks ago. Abortions at clinics in Texas fell by half. But many women were able to have abortions in neighboring states or by ordering pills, resulting in an overall drop of only about 10 percent.
Without Roe, abortion would likely fall more because women would have to travel further to reach a state where it was legal. Many women who have abortions are poor, and long travel distances can be insurmountable. The states most likely to ban abortion are concentrated in the South, Midwest, and Great Plains. Due to the expected increase in interstate travel, remaining clinics would most likely have less capacity to treat the women who were able to reach them.