The Ukraine conflict is a security for news events this week, but the activity will be largely out of the diary – apart from events such as Britain reopening its embassy in Kiev – for the next seven days. Slightly ironically, there is a long list of other war anniversaries this week – from Monday’s Anzac Day to Saturday’s memorial service in Vietnam of Liberation Day. A reminder that peace has been an unattainable dream for this world in modern times.
At the same time, we are in a kind of minor holiday season. Easter, Orthodox or otherwise, has been and gone, and this coming Sunday heralds the various May Day celebrations around the world.
On Sunday night, Emmanuel Macron defeated Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election, with the incumbent president’s right-wing extremist rival admitting shortly after initial projections showed he won more than 58 percent of the vote. Stay tuned to the Financial Times for analysis this week.
It’s a pretty full week of economic news with inflation figures for France, Germany and the euro countries as well as first-quarter GDP estimates for the euro area, US, Korea, France, Germany, Italy and Spain plus an interest rate decision by the bank of Japan.
The conflict in Ukraine has an immediate and long-term impact on the global economy, which the IMF highlighted last week as it slashed growth forecasts for several countries.
The New World Order was described by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, in an interview with FT. “If we become a world with many different blocks, we will have to undo many of the integrated economies we have built and supply chains that we have built … and build something else that is narrower. [and] less in scope, “he said.
‘There will be adjustment costs [and] there will be efficiency losses and it can lead to an increase in unit costs because things are not being done as efficiently as before. “
It will be a week for the nerds in relation to corporate earnings this week. Big Tech has had a good pandemic. The question now is whether Meta, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Microsoft or Spotify can maintain their strong growth rates. After last week’s Netflix shock in the number of subscribers, investors are no doubt nervous, although, as has been pointed out, there is a difference between a company that focuses exclusively on streaming TV and movie shows, and other technology companies.
The golden child Apple can now imagine itself as a Hollywood player after winning the top prize at the Oscars, but its investors are worried about its ability to deliver new sets of technology given the wave of shutdowns in several of its Chinese production centers. The next iPhone model will not make itself, you know. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that Wall Street’s consensus forecasts for the June quarter of $ 86.7 billion. (a 6 percent year-over-year increase) “seems high” given CEO Tim Cook’s typical caution when it comes to guidance.
Read the rest of the weekly calendar here