Delhi-NCR’s COVID-19 network growth is likely to slow down: study

In what may be a bit of the first good news amid rising COVID-19 cases in Delhi-NCR in April, the latest LocalCircles survey on the proliferation of COVID networks, completed on 23 April 2022, has indicated, that the week-to-week growth of COVID in Delhi-NCR among local social networks may be slower.

Delhi reported over 1,000 cases on April 22 with a test positivity rate (TPR) of 4.82 percent. NCR cities Noida, Gurugram, Faridabad and Ghaziabad also reported over 500 cases cumulatively.

The study has found that while COVID is still rising in Delhi-NCR, its prevalence among local social networks has increased by 60 percent in the last week after a 100 percent increase the previous week. This LocalCircles survey, which received input from 10,322 residents of Delhi and NCR, included 64 percent of men and 36 percent of women.

It further added that the network prevalence of COVID in Delhi-NCR grew from 3 per cent of persons with 1 or more positive cases (15 day period) in dense local area networks on 2 April to 31 per cent now having 1 or more positive . The figure has risen from 3 percent on April 2 to 9 percent on April 9, to 19 percent on April 16 and now to 31 percent on April 23.

With rising cases, the three state governments – Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana – have issued guidelines to be followed in schools at the request of the public and experts, in order to bring back the mask mandates they had removed with effect from 1 April 2020.

When asked “How many individuals (including children) do you have in your close social network (family, friends, neighbors, colleagues) in Delhi-NCR who have had COVID in the last 15 days,” said 52 percent of Delhi residents ” None within the last 15 days “. In addition, 5 percent of respondents said “more than 10”, 4 percent said “6-10”, 9 percent said “3-5”, and 13 percent said “1 or 2”.

The survey also showed that 31 per cent of Delhi-NCR residents said they have 1 or more people in their close social network who have had COVID in the last 15 days.

But with the mask mandate back and its adherence to people likely to slow down the COVID-19 transmission, it should be noted that the spread of local social networks in Delhi-NCR is slowing down, the study revealed.

The survey noted that 9 percent of respondents have said they know of 6 people affected by COVID in the last 15 days. Out of these 9 percent, 5 percent of respondents said they know of over 10 people who have been infected with COVID in the last 15 days.

Overall, 31 per cent of Delhi-NCR residents stated that they have 1 or more people in their close social network who have had COVID in the last 15 days compared to the 19 per cent who said this on 16 April. This is a 60 percent weekly increase in network prevalence, the study revealed, adding that it indicates that COVID is declining as a 100 percent increase in weekly network prevalence was found during the previous week.

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